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Free Weekly Forex Trading Blog!
Many factors affect the
values of currencies versus their counterparts such as:
interest rates, money supply, inflation, gross domestic
product, commodity prices, and various other industry
reports. This plethora of information can be hard to
synthesize into a useful format to decide which currency
pairs to invest in. Hopefully this weekly forex trading blog
will help you. Forex trading carries substantial risk of
loss and only risk capital should be used. Forex does not
trade on an exchange.
7/18/08 The USD had a rollercoaster ride this
week starting with the potential failure of Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac and record high oil prices which pushed the US
Dollar down versus its foreign counterparts. The Federal
Reserve Bank bailed out the loan giants and crude oil sold
off by nearly $20 which in turn strengthened the USD again.
In the US inflation is rising at the same time that consumer
spending is declining. This sounds like a bad indicator for
near term economic growth.
The EUR came down as the USD rallied.
Eurozone growth is also slowing at the same time inflation
is on the rise.
The JPY is down as the Bank of Japan admitted
that the Japanese economy is in trouble. They said that the
downside risks to economic growth supersedes the higher
risks of rising inflation.
7/4/08 The US Dollar had been sinking for the
last week or so until the Non Farm Payrolls came out in line
with expectations. Also lending steam to the USD was the 25
basis point rise in interest rates by the ECB which led
traders to believe that the ECB is not planning on raising
rates again this year. The EUR dropped 200 points after the
intest rate increase was announced. Traders are expecting
the Federal Reserve Bank to begin to tighten more
aggressively than the ECB over the next 12 months.
6/21/08 The US Dollar is sinking again as
potential rate increases may be put on hold because of the
problems in the stock market and recession fears. The other
currencies have been rising against the US Dollar.
6/13/08 The US Dollar
is still rallying and having its affect on the other majors.
It is also affecting commodities especially crude oil and
the metals. The worry on the street is that the rise in oil
will echo the economic fallout of the 1970's.
The euro dollar futures
have factored in nearly a 96% chance of a rate hike by the
US Federal Reserve Bank in the September meeting.
6/10/08 The US dollar
just hit its highest level in 3 months versus most major
currencies because of Secretary Paulson's hawkish talk that
was judged bullish for the USD.
5/26/08 The US Dollar
was pulled down this week because of record crude oil prices
and the declining stock market. Inflation concerns are also
hurting the USD bulls muster up a rally.
The other major
currencies rallied versus the USD. The EUR was up 1.2%
versus the USD and the JPY was up .7% versus the USD.
The CHF reached its
highest level versus the USD since April 23.
5/19/08 Most of the
major currencies remain range bound which probably shows the
central banks of the major currencies are probably all on
hold as it pertains to setting interest rates.
Most of the majors are
contending with high inflation rates and slowing economic
growth so the lack of changing interest rates will probably
stay on hold for a while.
The USD has fallen
versus many of its counterparts over the last week as the
rally seems to have run its course for now.
5/5/08 The USD is still
climbing, especially versus its European counter parts. The
EUR. CHF, and GBP are all near the bottoms of their ranges
but the JPY is near its high points. The US Federal Bank
chairmans are hinting that their may only be one more rate
cut if any and that is giving steam to a very weak US
Dollar.
4/30/08 The USD has
been on a tear this week against the EUR GBP CHF and JPY.
The Federal Reserve bank is expected to cut 25 basis points
at the end of today's FOMC meeting but the markets have
factored in a 16% chance that there will be no cut at all.
The Bank of Japan left
rates unchanged this week.
4/20/08 Bad economic
news in the US did not stop the USD from rallying again this
week. The market seems to think that the worst is over for
the US and the subprime crisis is going to be less of a
factor.
The Euro pulled off of
its highs as the USD rallied. The ECB is worried about
inflation at the same time worried about high valuations.
The JPY sold off this
week as the USD rallied to multi week highs.
The British Pound
followed that USD higher this week in spite of many economic
problems across the pond.
4/14/08 Weekly forex
trading blog- The USD rallied this week in spite of bad
economic news and the expectation of more bad news this
week.
The EUR set all time
highs around 159 last week as the ECB left rates unchanged.
Trichet is more worried about the rising inflation figures
than stimulating growth with a cut.
The JPY is expected to
sink as Japan tries to strengthen the USD because it
is affecting their economy in a negative way. Japan's recent
economic data was weak.
The GBP sank last week
with the BOE rate cut to 5%. The tight credit market
conditions and a problematic UK housing sector are showing
US like problems. Banks in the UK are very reluctant to
lend.
4/7/08 Weekly forex
trading blog- The USD is selling off and looking weak again
after its recent rally. There is still some concern that the
financial markets may still be in store for more problems.
The EUR is near its all
time highs again and inflation is at a 15 year high in the
Euro Zone. The ECB is meeting on Thursday to decide on
interest rates. The expectation is to see no increase this
meeting.
The GBP is having some
problems because of the UK housing bubble. The BOE is
meeting on Thursday to make a decision on interest rates.
The expectation is to see a 25 basis point cut in rates.
The JPY is losing
strength recently against most currencies.
3/31/08 Weekly forex
trading blog- The USD sold off after its rally this week.
The US consumer is not shopping and home prices continue to
decline.
The EUR is finding
support with a strong labor market and strong consumer
spending. The ECB is worried about inflation and pricing
stability so a cut in interest rates is not expected any
time soon.
The JPY is finding
strength as investors repatriate Yen as the Japanese fiscal
year ends. Investors are exiting existing trades outside of
the country.
3/23/08 Weekly forex
trading blog- The USD bounced this week versus most major
currencies this week probably based on profit taking on
short USD positions. The fifth largest US brokerage house is
gone, the Fed cut rates 75 basis points, commodities crash
more than anytime since the 1950's.
The EUR fell through
156 on the rally in the USD. EUR market data will occur on
Wednesday which may affect levels.
The JPY is the only
currency to hold its ground versus that greenback this week.
3/18/08 Weekly forex
trading blog- The USD reacted barely reacted to the Federal
Reserve Banks 75 basis cut in interest rates. The USD had
been collapsing after the Bear Stearns debacle which caused
commodity and stock prices to free fall.
The EUR hit its highest
levels ever against the USD as the ECB keeps rates the same.
Inflation is hitting the Eurozone and rates may be raised.
The JPY hit an 13 year
high versus the USD. This is a worrisome development for
Japanese exporters.
The Swiss Franc hit
parity versus the USD for the first time in history.
The British Pound is
trending sideways and interest rates will probably stay put
at the next BOE meeting.
3/10/08 Weekly forex
trading blog- The USD continues to drop verses the other
major currencies. The weak unemployment report and the
continued printing of money and interest rate cuts is adding
to the weakness.
The EUR rallied to an
all time high versus the USD.
The JPY continues to
rally versus the USD.
The CHF rallied to
another all time high versus the USD.
3/2/08 Weekly forex
trading blog- The US Dollar was down again this week as the
US fears about the economy increase. US Consumer Confidence
weakened and jobless claims increased. Fears of stagflation
increased based on the weak growth of the economy and higher
inflation potential.
The Euro Currency hit
record highs versus the US Dollar this week based on strong
economic data.
The GBP experienced a
lack of confidence in the financial sector and corporate
results are poor. The BOE warns of weaker growth and higher
inflation.
The JPY strengthened to
a 3 year high vs. the USD.
The CHF strengthened to
all time highs vs. the USD.
2/23/08 Weekly forex
trading blog- The US Dollar had more problems this week
because the CPI report showed higher inflation and lower
building permits do not bode well for a real estate bounce.
The Fed is more worried about stabilizing the US economy
instead of battling inflation. The USD weakened versus most
major currencies because of more potential rate cuts by the
Fed.
The Euro Currency saw a
rapid rise in monthly inflation numbers. This high current
inflation rate makes it improbable that the ECB will change
current interest rates. German producer prices were higher.
The Japanese Yen saw
large repatriation of currency to square up the yearly books
because the end of the Japanese financial year is the end of
March. Asset managers often convert assets on the books into
Yen to help out the balance sheet.
2/15/08 Weekly forex
trading blog- The US Dollar had some problems this week
holding onto the recent strength. The various economic
reports that came out this week pointed to more economic
problems on the horizon. Fed chief Bernanke is still very
negative on the potential for economic growth over the near
term. He also showed his willingness to cut rates even more
to stimulate the economy and bail out the financial sector.
The Euro Currency is
not likely to see any rate cuts because Trichet does not
seem likely to stimulate interest rate cuts because of the
current inflation concerns.
The British Pound is
rallying because the Bank of England is not likely to cut
rates very much over the near term because the quarterly
inflation report showed enough inflation growth.
The Japanese Yen cross
trades are unwinding as volatility decreases. The BOJ left
rates on hold as GDP was stronger than expected.
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