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Free weekly futures trading blog.
Many factors influence the price
of commodities and their futures markets. Interest rates,
supply and demand, weather, government subsidies and
inflation are a few of the factors that influence the price
of commodities. Futures and option trading carries
substantial risk loss and only risk capital should be use in
futures and options trading. Past performance is not
indicative of future results.
11/4/10 More quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve Bank
killed the USD and strengthened many other currencies. If
the USD continues to come down other countries may respond
with tariffs and trade wars. Commodity prices are much
higher today with precious metals leading the way. Gold is
up over $40 an ounce and silver futures are up a dollar an
ounce.
Softs are higher led by cotton futures at civil war highs.
Energies are higher led by crude oil as it breaks through
$86 a barrel.
10/9/09 Futures trading blog- The crude oil market is back
above the $70 mark again as the US Dollar falls to 12 month
lows. The idea that the Fed will not mess with interest
rates until inflation is a real threat is pushing many
investors to hedge using commodity market investments.
Gold is near its all time high with silver following it to
the upside as an inflationary hedge.
Sugar is selling off from its 28 year highs and other softs
such as cotton and cocoa are also surging as of late.
The grain markets are also rallying from the recent lows.
9/8/09 Futures trading blog- The crude oil market is above
$70 again as the US Dollar falls to its lowest level this
year versus the Euro.
Gold futures prices are now above $1000 an ounce again and
silver is near $17 an ounce again. Fears of inflation may
also be resurfacing soon.
The grain markets are near their contract lows as no freeze
potential is seen based on the late planting for soybeans
and corn.
Sugar futures prices just hit a 28 year high and are now
selling off as the market may have gotten ahead of itself.
3/2/09 Futures trading blog- The energy sector has found
some strength recently as tight unleaded gas supplies and
another OPEC production cut is expected this month are
helping prices higher.
The precious metal futures have been running higher as the
world runs to perceived safe havens such as gold and silver.
Gold recently broke $1000 an ounce and silver $14.
Copper is gaining some strength on hopes that the US
stimulus plan for infrastructure may come into fruition.
The grains are trading sideways as no new fundamental news
has been able to move the markets.
The softs have been lead by sugar futures as the others
languish sideways or in downtrends.
1/30/09 Futures Trading Blog- The energy sector has been
rangebound like many commodity sectors recently. Crude oil
futures has been trading from the high $30s to the high
$40s. Natural gas futures have been coming down and the
downtrend is still intact.
Grains look to be basing sideways as drought in South
America is propping up prices.
The softs have been strong with sugar, cotton, coffee and
cocoa near contract highs.
Gold and silver futures are also near the contract highs as
investors rush out of stocks into hard assets. Copper
futures also looks to be basing .
12/8/08 Futures Trading Blog-Futures markets have found strength recently as the
USD has come down some from its highs. The futures markets
have been very sensitive to stock market and USD moves over
the last few months.
The commodity market rallies and sell offs have been led by
the crude oil markets.
11/30/08 Futures Trading Blog-The commodity markets have recently found strength
because of the weakening US Dollar. The crude oil market is
bouncing and lending strength to other commodity markets.
The massive printing of money in the US should eventually
lead to inflation and strengthen dollar denominated
commodity markets.
10/30/08 Weekly futures trading blog- The commodity markets are
rallying based on the fall of the US Dollar. The commodity
markets had been suffering from the perception of a global
recession, demand destruction and massive deleveraging of
financial assets. The FOMC meeting ended in a 50 bps cut
which weakened the US Dollar.
9/22/08 Weekly futures trading blog- Commodity prices have been on
quite a rollercoaster ride over the last week or so. The US
bailout of the financial system involves printing massive
amounts of currency. This recent realization has sent the US
Dollar crashing and most of the commodities flying upward in
price. Gold had its largest one day move ever and crude oil
has rallied $20 recently. Grains, softs, meats have all been
rallying based on the fall in the US Dollar.
9/12/08 Weekly futures trading blog-Commodity prices are still
selling off because of the rise of the US Dollar and the
de-leveraging of many of the financial institutions and
large speculators.
9/1/08 Weekly futures trading blog- Commodity prices were bullish
this week based on the run up in crude oil because Hurricane
Gustav's potential disruption of oil platforms and
infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.
Oils strength helped pull up many other commodities like the
metals and grains.
Grains have found support because of dry weather potentially
affecting yields.
8/16/08 Weekly futures trading blog- Commodity prices are still
crashing. Energies are leading the way but the metals are
really falling based on meteoric rise in the USD.
The grains are still coming down based on the perception
that the global economic slowdown with hurt demand.
Sugar is falling but is holding better than many of the
other softs.
8/8/08 Weekly futures trading blog- Commodities prices are
correcting led by crude oil. Crude oil has corrected by 20%
at least a dozen different times since the bull began in
1999. Natural gas has corrected by about $5.
The grains are correcting based on great weather and the
weakness in the other commodity markets.
The softs sector is correcting except for sugar who is
staging a 4 cent rally.
The metals are correcting based on the strength in the US
Dollar.
7/18/08 Weekly futures trading blog- Commodity futures
prices crashed this week led by crude oil's nearly $20
tumble. Reasons for the tumble include warming relations
with Iran, potential economic slowdowns cause by high crude
oil prices around the world and a lack of trust for the
financial sector in general by the public.
Grains are collapsing with the influx of good weather in the
grain belt and the strengthening of the US Dollar.
Softs followed the rest of the commodity markets down as
investors move to the sidelines.
The metals found support with the uncertainty of the
financial markets and the inflation fighting perception many
investors feel that gold and silver posess.
7/4/08
Weekly futures trading blog- Commodity futures prices
rallied for the most part this week as the USD sank and
crude oil hit another all time high. The tension between
Israel and Iran are making many traders nervous. Natural gas
also hit another contract high with heating oil and unleaded
gas not far behind.
The soft markets rallied this week led by sugar. Sugar is
finding strength with the record prices of corn and
gasoline. Cocoa hit another contract high as crop yields are
questionable. Coffee hit a multi week high based on cool
temperatures in Brazil
The grains rallied again this week led by soybeans hitting
another all time high over $16 based on tight ending stocks
and potentially tight new crop supplies. Corn sold off when
the USDA report came out showing a surprising increase in
stocks.
Metals rallied this week based on inflationary hedging by
investors and the weak US Dollar at the beginning of the
week.
6/21/08 Weekly futures
trading blog- The weakening US Dollar is helping out many
commodities this week.
The soft markets are running strong this week. Cocoa
harvests in Indonesia are disease stricken and futures are
at contract highs. Sugar has rallied 2 cents in a little
over a week as the global surplus may turn into a deficit by
the end of the year. Coffee futures broke out of its trading
range because of short covering and potential freezes in
Brazil. Cotton futures are running based on dry conditions
in Western Texas.
The panic grain rally may have hit a near term top as much
of the flood damage has probably been factored in.
Energies are near the record again based on tension between
Israel and Iran.
6/13/08 Weekly futures
blog- The rising USD has helped bring crude oil futures
prices down from their all time high but how long will that
last? A potential strike in Nigeria with Chevron workers and
tensions between Israel and Iran are keeping prices high.
Grains are near or at
all time highs because of the major floods in the corn belt.
The softs are staging a
rally led by sugar and cotton.
Metals are getting
pounded by the US Dollar's recent strength.
6/10/08 Weekly futures
blog- The rising USD has hurt many commodities except for
grains and sugar as of late.
Metals have been
crushed and crude oil is $10 from its high.
5/25/08 Weekly futures
blog- The falling USD helped many commodities find their
bullish moves for the week. Crude oil and natural gas
futures led the rally this week to all time highs for crude
oil futures and contract highs for natural gas futures.
The grains are moving
based on delayed planting concerns because of too much wet
weather in the grain belt.
The precious metals
rallied based on the declining USD this week and renewed
concerns about US inflation.
5/19/08 Weekly futures
blog- The USD has begun to slip versus its major
counterparts which is helping the commodity bull market stay
on track.
Crude oil futures are
setting new highs and helping pull some of the other
commodities up with it. Gold and silver had been running
too.
Grains are
consolidating except for wheat which is still coming down.
5/5/08 Weekly futures
blog- The US Dollar is still climbing versus its European
counterparts which is weakening the commodity vs. US Dollar
hedge. Commodities and mostly priced in US Dollars around
the globe and the stronger dollar is killing commodity
prices recently. Commodities have been the investment of
choice for speculators looking to hedge their inflation and
currency risks.
Natural gas and the
other energy markets have been the least affected by the
rising US Dollar as of late.
4/30/08 Weeklly futures
blog- The commodity markets have been selling off a bit this
week based on a rising US Dollar and a flight to cash be
risk averse investors.
The only powerful
commodities have been in the energy sector led by Natural
Gas and Crude oil. Grains, softs, meats and metals have all
been languishing sideways to down.
4/20/08 Weekly futures
blog- The natural gas market hit contract highs this week as
global demand for LNG increases. Crude oil hit a record all
time high this week as problems in Nigeria and pipeline
problems in Tennessee hindered the flow of oil from point A
to point B this week.
Grains are
consolidation sideways with the Metals following suit.
The softs are trying to
break out again led by cocoa and sugar.
4/14/08 Weekly futures
blog- The commodity markets are once again showing signs of
strength. The energies are hovering near the highs but
grains are starting to correct a bit. The softs are also
consolidating sideways along with metals.
4/7/08 Weekly futures
blog- The commodity markets are gaining strength again based
on the ideas that the sell off was based on panic in the
financial sector and not because of supply and demand
issues. Most of the major markets found strength last week.
Corn in particular set an all time high futures price.
Another all time high futures price was set by unleaded
gasoline.
3/31/08 Weekly futures
blog- The commodity markets are still languishing this week
with the exception on natural gas and heating oil. Hedge
funds are still de-leveraging assets and the CBOT just
raised margin requirements.
3/23/08 Weekly futures
blog- The commodity markets crashed as hard as they have
since the 1950's based on more uncertainty in the financial
markets and the bounce in the US Dollar. The potential US
recession influencing China and India is a reason for the
commodity collapse. The FOMC meeting yielded a 75 basis
point cut instead of the expected 100 basis point cut that
the markets factored in.
3/18/08 Weekly futures
blog- There was a broad based commodity collapse over the
last 5 trading days based on investor uncertainty about the
Bear Stearns problems and the rest of the financial system.
The soft markets
collapsed led by coffee as commodity funds liquidated
positions.
The same thing happened
with grains as they sold off from contract highs.
The metals held
together better than the rest of the commodities but barely.
Energies sold off from
record highs as well.
3/10/08 Weekly futures
trading blog- There was a broad based commodity sell off
this week in metals, grains and softs.
The soft
markets-cotton, cocoa, coffee, sugar all crashed from their
contract highs based on massive fund liquidations.
Grains sold off from
contract and all time highs based on fund selling and the
overbought technical conditions.
Energies led by crude
oil hit another all time high. Natural gas is near contract
highs abased on low underground supplies versus last year.
Metals sold off from
the contract highs lead by silver and copper. This is
occurring in spite of the fact the the Federal Reserve Bank
will continue to print money and cut interest rates.
3/2/08 Weekly futures
trading blog- Soybeans hit all time highs this week. The
other grains settled down from their highs this
week led by the collapse of wheat prices. However, global
supply can not be replenished for many months to come.
The softs markets
rallied again led by cocoa, coffee and cotton. Cotton
finished the week with another near limit day based on high
energy costs and competition for acreage with the grains.
Gold hit an all time
high this week based on an inflation hedge and the weaker US
Dollar. Silver also hit 26 year highs.
Energies hit all time
highs again this week based on militant attacks in Nigeria
and Turkish invasion of Northern Iraq. Natural gas hit a
contract high as well.
2/23/08 Weekly futures
trading blog- The grains futures made contract highs again
this week except for wheat. The global supply will probably
remain very tight over the near term in spite of the USDA
estimated huge global plantings.
The softs futures
markets hit contract highs this week with the exception of
orange juice. Tight supplies of coffee and hoarding by
Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, pushed prices
higher.
The metals futures hit
contract highs this week with gold setting an all time
record high and silver breaching $18. Copper futures also
ran based on huge Chinese buying.
Energy futures hit all
time highs this week based on refinery explosions and OPEC's
statement that they would not raise production at current
levels. Natural gas hit contract highs based on cold temps
in the Midwest and the Northeast.
2/15/08 Weekly futures
trading blog- The grains are still running this week near
record highs led by wheat. There is expected to be record
planted acres of wheat globally but that won't be harvested
for months.
The softs markets are
running and seem to be very strong led by sugar and cocoa.
Coffee futures and cotton are also strong recently. The long
term outlook for softs my be much higher as this sector has
underperformed versus its other counterparts such as
energies, metal, grains and meats.
The metals markets are
falling led by gold because the markets are beginning to
think that the recession will not be as bad as predicted. Copper is holding its own based on
Chinese demand.
The energies are
trading within a seven dollar range recently and this time of
year is usually soft for energy prices.
Futures trading carries
substantial risk of loss. Only use risk capital when
investing in futures and options.
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